Week 13 Early Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Falcons-Chargers, Bengals-Steelers, Jaguars-Texans, Vikings-Cardinals, Patriots-Colts, Jets-Seahawks & Commanders-Titans

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

ATL vs LAC (-1)

Wow: this is a huge, 13-point flip in actual and adjusted scores. The Atlanta Falcons were significantly better by success rate, and had better EPA efficiency, but their total EPA numbers were worse because they ran so many more plays. The Los Angeles Chargers only had a couple real drives, with 10 total first downs to the Falcons 24, and 46 total plays to 77. The Falcons’ four turnovers made the difference, all Kirk Cousins interceptions, more than enough to outweigh a single Chargers fumble lost.

The Chargers were simply awful fundamentally on offense, and they also lost a costly fumble and failed on a fake punt on their own 36 yard-line. This was one of the worst offensive performances in a win this season. Cousins’ pick-6 in the late third quarter was the play of the game. It cost the Falcons 7.6 expected points and 32.3% in win probability.

There’s talk of Cousins being washed, but he didn’t end up with much worse EPA efficiency than Justin Herbert, despite losing nearly 20 EPA to interceptions and sacks. Only having one sack kept his numbers out of the total embarrassment zone, but interceptions bring more scrutiny.

CIN (-3) vs PIT