Week 13 Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency (AQE)

Josh Allen has an MVP week, but doesn't get the all important W. Dak Prescott and Trevor Lawrence were also big value adders in Week 12

Check out the first the first installment of the Luck-Adjusted Efficiency numbers (free post) to get more details on the methodology below. I also have lots of information in past posts on Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency (AQE):

• AQE introduction

• Update to 2.0

• Updated to 3.0

• All previous write-ups

ESPN (finally) dropped its receiver tracking-based metrics on a new analytics website. Due to controversy and some issues that I have with the methodology, I’ve decided to exclude them from the calculation this year. I think mental adjustments for perceived receiver quality is more usual than using questionable “open” scores. Plus, I already incorporate YAC above expected into the analysis, which captures some of the receiver qualities that boost quarterback results.

2023 LUCK-ADJUSTED RESULTS

The plot below shows each quarterback who has 150 play involvements this season (dropbacks and designed runs). There are two points for each quarterback: 1) The team-colored dot for the actual EPA per play the quarterback has this season and 2) The quarterback headshot representing the adjusted quarterback efficiency (EPA/play). There is also a team-colored line linking the two on each row.