Week 12 Sunday, Late Window: Advanced Reviews

The Bills keep losing games they should win, while the Chiefs take care of business. Oh, yeah, the Broncos are somehow looking towards the playoffs too

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

DEN vs CLE

This one was closer by the adjusted scores than the actual 17-point differential, but it was still seen as a comfortable winning effort for the Broncos. The actual score was wider mostly due to massive advantages the Broncos had with turnover and late-down conversions, which are both down-weighted in the model.