Week 12 Sunday, Early Window: Advanced Reviews

Trevor Lawrence outduels C.J. Stroud, the Colts are really in the playoff mix (?), and the Patriots move closer to a top-2 pick in the 2024 NFL draft

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

ATL vs NO

The Falcons get the nine-point win to take the lead in the mediocre NFC South, but the adjusted scores saw this as basically a draw. The two offenses had almost identical success rates, each team had two turnovers and Derek Carr outplayed Desmond Ridder. The Saints were viewed by the market as the stronger team going into this one, as a 2-point favorite in Atlanta.

It was the scale of the turnovers that mattered, with Jessie Bates’ 96-yard pick-6 costing the Saints 11.5 expected points, and 33% win probability. The second most costly play in terms of win probability also hurt the Saints, a 1st & 10 Taysom Hill fumble on the Falcons 9 yard-line cost 26.2% win probability, and an understated (due to not factoring in the pre-fumble gain on the play) 4.9 expected points.