Week 12 Early Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Panthers-Chiefs, Bears-Vikings, Texans-Titans, Colts-Lions, Dolphins-Patriots, Giants-Bucs, & Commanders-Cowboys

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

CAR vs KC (-11)

This game was about as comfortable of a win as you can have when ending in a last-second field goal. The Kansas City Chiefs were favored by 11 points facing the Carolina Panthers on the road, and never trailed after a first-drive touchdown. The Chiefs’ win probability only dipped below 80% when the Panthers scored a touchdown and two-point conversion to tie the game with less than two minutes remaining. While it was a good effort for the Panthers to tie the game, 1:46 was too much time for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to drive down and get an easy game-winning field goal as the clock expired.

The adjusted scores had this as more lopsided than the actual scores, with the Chiefs’ offense hitting a success rate more than 10% better than the Panthers. Both teams were highly efficient on offense, and in both phases of offense. The teams got some efficiency juice on late down conversions, with the Chiefs adding +11.0 EPA on third and fourth downs, and the Panthers at +8.4 EPA.

The top-10 highest impact plays in EPA were all positive, and Mahomes’ final-drive scramble to set up the final field goal was the biggest play of the game in win probability added (+16.4%).

The numbers for Mahomes and Bryce Young were similarly strong, with Mahomes offsetting higher negatives with scramble value. Mahomes took another five sacks for 43 yards lost in the game. Mahomes is in the bottom-10 for sack EPA lost this season, after being outside the bottom-25 every previous year of his career.

This was the second-highest efficiency game for Young in his career (first was Week 16 last season against the Packers). I’m still not seeing a career turnaround for Young, but he has produced a total of +11.6 EPA since returning as starter in Week 8.

CHI vs MIN (-3)