Week 11 TNF Eagles-Commanders: Advanced Review
The Eagles win and take a commanding (sorry) lead in the NFC East
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
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** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
PHI (-4.5) vs WAS
The Philadelphia Eagles won fairly comfortably at home against the Washington Commanders, who struggled offensively for the second straight week. The game only had 10 combined points at halftime, with the Eagles missing two field goals, a big part of a -10.7 EPA disadvantage they had in special teams and penalties that kept the game close.
Offensively, the Eagles were a bit better in overall success rate, but not outstanding. They drove EPA efficiency in an atypical fashion: extreme rushing efficiency and volume. The Eagles called designed runs on 50% of their plays (+12% versus expectation), and gained more than a quarter of an expected point on each rush.
The Eagles rushing efficiency wasn’t heavily skewed by short-yardage tush pushes (there were two for a combined +1.2 EPA), but mostly on the back of super-signing Saquon Barkley, who added +6.1 EPA on 26 designed runs. Barkley’s efficiency was largely due to his explosive abilities, resulting in two long touchdowns (39 and 23 yards) that were worth more than +7 EPA by themselves. Barkley has more 30-plus yard runs this season than any other play (7), and also more gaining 10-plus (26). Barkley also added +3.8 EPA on only three targets in the passing game, +3.6 of that total coming on a massive 39-yard gain on 3rd & 6.
The Eagles only needed average efficiency dropping back to pass to be great overall with their running game humming. Even when dropping back to pass, gains on the ground via scrambles were most profitable for the Eagles, including two big third down conversions for Jalen Hurts on scrambles (+3.1 EPA).
The Commanders were inefficient rushing the ball again this week, driven, in part, by their first fourth down failure of the season (4th & 2 , -3.5 EPA). The Commanders’ previous efficiency had been artificially high after converting their first 12 fourth down tries. Outside of the fourth down failure, the Commanders weren’t horrible running the ball (-4.5 EPA on 23 designed runs), but also not producing at the level of previous weeks (2024 seasonal average of +0.02 EPA per, 5th best in the NFL)
Jayden Daniels didn’t have negative EPA like last week, but his flat efficiency is well below what we’ve come to expect this season. The big play was his fourth down failure, costing 3.5 expected points and swinging win probability 25.5% in the wrong direction. Outside of that, Daniels was able to generate some value, but he was troubled by negatives at a higher level than previous games, with a late interception forced into zone coverage costing 4.1 expected points. The positive for Daniels is that he could offset a very high level of negatives to get back to ever so slightly positive EPA on the game.
Jalen Hurts put up enough value to get the Eagles the win with the opponent struggling offensively, though the Eagles were more reliant on Barkley runs. Hurts drove his efficiency with run and scramble gains (+4.9 EPA) and low negatives (zero turnover and two sacks), not passing value.
The win puts the Eagles games ahead of the Commanders in the loss column, and betting markets now have them at an implied probability over 80% to win the division.
