Week 11 SNF Chargers-Bengals: Advanced Review

The Chargers got the win in the end, even after their offense fell apart in the second half, opening the door for the Bengals

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

LAC (-1) vs CIN

The Los Angeles Chargers squandered a commanding 21-point lead in the mid third quarter, but closed out the game on their last possession. The adjusted scores saw this as a closer game than the final score, with the Bengals suffering a -9.2 EPA disadvantage in special teams and penalties, entirely due to field-goal kicking variance. Evan McPherson missed his two longer attempts of 48 and 51 yards, while Christian Dicker hit his 53-yarder.

This game produced one of the crazier win probability charts of the season, with the Chargers getting above 95% in the early third quarter, before the Bengals stormed all the way back to tie the game and have possession with an opportunity to take the lead the three different times in the fourth quarter.