Week 11, SNF Broncos-Vikings: Advanced Review
The Vikings were the better team, but turnover variance hit them hard, and the Broncos steal a W in Mile High
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
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** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
DEN vs MIN
The Vikings revert back to form of earlier this season, losing games they should win. They were materially better offensively on a play-by-play basis (success rate of 46% vs 39%), but lost the turnover advantage by 16 EPA.
The real unlucky part for the Vikings was losing two fumbles, the most impactful plays of the game in expected points lost (combined -10.9 EPA). The most impactful play in win probability (-24.4%, 72% down to 48%) was a Josh Dobbs’ interception caused caused by a hit in the backfield that gifted the Broncos the ball inside the Vikings 10 yard-line.
Kevin O’Connell continued to hit the right notes with fourth down decisions, netting win probability with the right calls, including a fake punt from their own 31 yard-line with the lead in the fourth quarter. It was a risky call, also one he would have been pilloried for if it failed.
On the other sideline, Sean Payton passed up three opportunities to gain at least 1% in win probability by going for it: 4th & 2 from the 12 yard-line (FG), 4th & Goal from the 10 yard-line down 5 points late in the fourth quarter and 4th & 3 on their own side of the field in the third quarter (this one would have been against the grain for even aggressive coaches).
Both quarters had flat efficiency, but Dobbs was much more effective throwing the ball, with the positives mitigated by two costly turnovers that were higher variance than most.
Russell Wilson avoided mistakes, but continued to do so by running a low-upside scheme. He’s aDOT was 6.7 yards, and he mostly avoided the middle of the field, the higher risk-reward sections.