Week 11 Early Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Bears-Packers, Lions-Jaguars, Dolphins-Raiders, Patriots-Rams, Saints-Browns, Jets-Colts, Steelers-Ravens & Titans-Vikings

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

CHI vs GB (-6)

Both teams had strong offensive numbers in this game, though through very different methods. The Green Bay Packers gained an extreme 8.5 yards per play to the Chicago Bears at a respectable 5.8. But the Bears were unstoppable on high-leverage conversions, getting a new set of downs 12 of the 16 times they went to third down (including 3-for-3 on fourth downs, +6.8 EPA), versus the Packers going 1-for-5 on third downs and 0-for-1 on fourth. Slowly moving the ball down the field with conversions led to the Bears running 72 plays to the Packers’ 45.

The teams also contrasted in which offensive phase drove overall efficiency, with the Bears hitting the 90th percentile in rushing EPA (+0.17), and the Packers at the 93rd percentile dropping back to pass.

The key play was the game-ending 46-yard field goal block by the Packers (-2.2 EPA, -60% WPA). On the prior drive, the Packers took the lead mostly on a 60-yard reception from Christian Watson, going down on the CHI 14 (+29.3% win probability).

Both quarterbacks put up strong efficiency, but Jordan Love had ridiculous rate stats, including 15.4 YPA on only 17 pass attempts. Caleb Williams was able to drive a lot of his overall value with four designed runs (+4.8 EPA) and three conversions via scrambles (+4.8).

The Packers stay two games back in a highly competitive NFC North.

DET (-14) vs JAX