Week 11, Early Window: Advanced Reviews

Trevor Lawrence silences the doubters, the Browns scrape by in a defensive showdown, and the Lions sitting pretty at 8-2

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

CAR vs DAL

Another week, another bad loss for the Panthers. The Cowboys expanded on their enormously positive point differential (now +127) with a +23 victory against this week. The differences in success rate between the two teams wasn’t as wide as the EPA-efficiency results.

Surprisingly, the game was within seven points into the fourth quarter. The two biggest plays of the game were Panthers mistakes: the third pick-6 of the season for DaRon Bland and a non-contact Bryce Young fumble. Those plays drove a 80-plus percentile differential in efficiency.

Dak Prescott was highly efficiency, but his counting stats don’t pop out at 189 passing yards and two touchdowns. Prescott’s EPA-based efficiency was good, despite averaging only 5.0 yards per attempt, reflecting big EPA gains on third down conversions of 19, 16 and 10 yards, the first via penalty. Prescott also entirely avoided negatives, with no interceptions, fumbles or sacks on 41 dropbacks and one designed run.

You don’t want to completely write off Bryce Young but even the worst surroundings should produce better results for a future franchise quarterback. Young’s negatives this season are ridiculously costly, and he’s taking a ton of sacks (seven in this game).

CLE vs PIT