Week 10 Bayesian Quarterback Rankings

Joe Burrow back into the top-4, C.J. Stroud on the cusp of the top-12, can Justin Fields do anything to be the long-term option in Chicago?

Joe Burrow is almost all the way back from early struggles

For those of you looking for the Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency (AQE) numbers, it might be a week (or two) before I have the data to produce them. I’m figuring it all out now and appreciate the patience. I am producing a slimmed down version that I’m calling Luck-Adjusted Efficiency.

You can find all the previous weeks’ versions of the Bayesian Quarterback Rankings here.

COMPARING GRADES AND EFFICIENCY

PFF grades aren’t part of the analysis, but I find it helpful to make not of how they align with EPA per play, as many contextual elements of quarterback play (drops, interception-worthy throws, easier throws that become big gains, etc) are part of the grading methodology, but aren’t accounted for in EPA. At the same time, I think EPA does a vastly superior job of weighing what is and isn’t important in points-based results.

Brock Purdy continues to make a mess of the scaling and correlation between EPA efficiency and grading, though I think the outsized negatives attached to “turnover-worthy plays” in PFF grading methodology probably dings Purdy too harshly (5th highest rate at 5.1% of dropbacks), and doesn’t give him enough credit for sack avoidance (fifth lowest rate of pressure-to-sack at 14.4%). That said, he hasn’t been the best per-play quarterback in the NFL, as you might assume just looking at EPA per play.

Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovalioa have been fairly sticky as the top quarterbacks this season when considering both EPA efficiency and grading, though others are getting closer as the weeks pass. Lamar Jackson and Jared Goff are similarly graded to those three, but are closer to the middle of the pack in EPA efficiency. My system of using EPA heavily (with subjective context of grading), likely views Jackson, in particular, as having worse season than most analysts, but still not bad by any means. Grading tends to focus on throw accuracy versus the process decision-making (including avoiding sacks) that flows through more to EPA, so it’s no surprise that Goff and Jackson have strong grades while ranking first and third in PFF’s adjusted completion percentage.

Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts and C.J. Stroud all took big steps up in EPA efficiency this week, putting them solidly in the second tier of quarterback performers this season.

WEEK 10 PROJECTED EFFICIENCY

These results are the ranking for the go-forward projections of quarterback efficiency this season. I also included the EPA per play rankings for each quarterback over the last five seasons (minimum 250 dropbacks in previous years, 100 in 2023) so you can see the evidence going into the projections.

Older data is decayed over time, so the 2023 EPA per play data matters more than those from pre-2020. That said, older data can’t be fully discounted, or else you miss bounce-back performers of great quarterback returning to form, like Aaron Rodgers in 2020 and 2021.

I’m not sure if Matthew Stafford will be healthy coming out of the Rams Week 10 bye, but I’m keeping him in there for now, even with Carson Wentz joining the team as a surprise signing. The projections include a return of Justin Fields, Taylor Heinicke remaining the Falcons starter, and the Giants rolling with Tommy DeVito.