Week 1 Sunday (Early Window): Advanced Game Reviews

A horrific early window for offensive football, with the mixed debuts of three rookie quarterbacks

Chrisitian McCaffrey continues to make the case that he truly matters

** As the early season kinks get worked out at nflreadR, only the early game advanced stats are available right now. I’ll post the advanced reviews for the late-window and SNF on Monday morning (hopefully).

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

WAS vs ARI

The Arizona Cardinals successfully secured the first step towards drafting Caleb Williams with a road loss to the questionably talented Washington Commanders. Cardinals starting quarterback Josh Dobbs arrived so recently that he didn’t know all of his teammates’ names, and it showed in the results.

The Cardinals total offensive efficiency was below the fifth percentile, but the Commanders weren’t much better, barely breaking the 10th.

We didn’t learn a lot to take forward from this game, other than the Cardinals are who we thought they were on offense, but maybe a bit better on defense. Sam Howell was harassed most of the game, taking six sacks and throwing an interception, while the ground game was stuck in the mud. Howell was very much a sack-taker in college (10.6% of dropbacks in 2021), so the trend continuing in the NFL is worrisome. What he can provide much better than superficial comps like Baker Mayfield is mobility. Howell scrambled four times, but two were called back by penalty. He did convert one into a touchdown.

It will take a few weeks to figure out if the Cardinals defense is really good enough to upset their tanking plans, or if Howell is that bad, which wouldn’t be a big surprise as a former fifth-round pick with one start to his name as a rookie.

ATL vs CAR

The adjusted scores have this one as basically a draw, a much different result than the 14-point differential in the actual score. The Carolina Panthers were inept on offense, but actually were a bit better in success rate, a major driver of the adjusted score model. The Atlanta Falcons benefited greatly from turnovers, a Miles Sanders fumble and two Bryce Young interceptions. Plus, the Panthers failed on 4th & 1 on the Falcons’ 12 yard-line, costing them 4.1 EPA.

The Falcons appear to be replicated what was successful for them last season: running the ball and doing it well. Their rushing efficiency was slightly negative in terms of EPA, but at the 60th percentile when most rushes lose value. They also passed at a rate 12.6% below expectation (based on situational context).