Week 1 NFL Power Rankings

49ers separate at the top, with the Chiefs, Lions and Ravens in hot pursuit

This is going to be a relatively short post to update the 2024 NFL power rankings from my initial post a five weeks back. Some rankings of mine have changed slightly, and the betting market estimates for team strengths have also shifted somewhat. All that said, the differences are small, even if the optics of two-to-three ranking-spot shifts look significant. If you want all the details on how the power rankings are derived, with visualizations into the underlying inputs, please check out that post from a few weeks back.

The reality is that less than three points in team strength (estimated point differential against an average team on a neutral field) separates half of the NFL teams in the middle of the distribution. If you shift a team up/down by less than a point, it can still cause multiple rankings to change. Long story short, don’t read too much into smaller shifts, and instead focus on the separations at the top, which can be significant.

The exact numbers for power rankings and other site metrics are available to paid subscribers on the Unexpected Points Goggle Sheet.

THE UPDATED NUMBERS ENTERING 2024

The plot below shows the estimated point differentials (strength ratings) for each team listed in decreasing order at the team logos, with the betting-market derived figures linked by the points on the plot.