Week 1 MNF 49ers-Jets: Advanced Review

Jordan is the new RBDM star, as the NFL's best team rolls through Aaron Rodgers and the Jets

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

SF-NYJ

I’m a little surprised to see the adjusted scores having this contest as close as a five-point differential. My guess is that it's a combination of my misperception - along with the larger viewing public - of how much turnover luck, special teams and penalties affected the outcome of the game, plus the adjusted score not giving the 49ers enough credit in a heavily run-heavy attack.

First, let’s go back to the luck-based elements giving the 49ers less credit for their production. Kicker Jake Moody made two 50-plus field goals, plus another from 46 yards, and the 49ers earned an important 3rd & 8 first down on an illegal contact penalty in the third quarter to build on their lead. The most impactful play of the game was Bryce Hall’s post-catch fumble on 1st & 10 to start a first-quarter drive, alone costing the Jets 5.3 expected points. The Jets also failed on the only fourth down try of the game, losing roughly 3 expected points. All of those elements are discounted in the adjusted scores model, narrowing the gap between actual and adjusted figures.