TNF Eagles-Vikings: Advanced Game Review

The Vikings seem cursed this season after getting more than their fair share of luck last year. Time to worry about Hurts?

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

PHI vs MIN

I was surprised to see that the Vikings didn’t continue their mission to be adjusted-score winner and actual losers all this season, as was the case in Week 1 against the Bucs. Here the adjusted scores have a narrowed result still leaning towards the Eagles. The Eagles had the better success rate, though heavily skewed towards lower-upside rushes (62.2% run success versus 31.2% dropping back to pass).