TNF 49ers-Seahawks Advanced Review
49ers' defense shuts down the Seahawks, and the big-play offense with Brock Purdy continues its efficiency
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2022 Adjusted Scores are available to subscribers via Google Sheet. Check them out. I welcome your feedback.
Big-play Purdy for the win
Brock Purdy has taken the reins for the 49ers and he’s doing an uncanny Jimmy Garoppolo impersonation. Purdy averaged a healthily 0.19 EPA per play last night, a Garoppolo-esque number, and the way he produced that efficiency was also eerily similar to the Jimmy-led offense. Two incredibly open touchdown throws to YAC-monster George Kittle were the most valuable plays of the game, outside of a relatively meaningless 55-yard Jordan Mason run with a minute remaining.
Those passes accounted for half of Purdy’s total EPA generated on completed passes in the game (8.4 of 17), and 70% of the EPA of those plays came after the catch (5.7). The 49ers running game was unspectacular but efficient (+0.8 total EPA for Christian McCaffrey), and the their top-rated defense shut down a suddenly struggling Seahawks offense to the tune of -0.22 EPA per play (below the 10th percentile). Purdy’s mission was really just to not mess things up, and he did that well, outside of an egregious dropped interception by Quandre Diggs.
The two major differences in Purdy vs. Garoppolo are his mobility inside and outside of the pocket (two scrambles for +1 EPA, including a 3rd & 1 conversion to keep the clock running with less than three minutes remaining) and his inability to convert third down through the air (30% success rate for -1.3 EPA passing on third down). All together, Purdy will be more than good enough to rack up wins going into the playoffs, as long as the 49er defense continues at this level and Kittle and other weapons don’t join Deebo Samuel on the sideline with an injury. The 49ers’ Super Bowl betting odds have leapfrogged the Cowboys, and only trail the Bills, Eagles and Chiefs.
I detailed some of Geno Smith’s struggles in the Week 14 advanced review, and now he’s outside of the top-10 in EPA per play, averaging worse than -0.2 EPA per play in both matchups against the 49ers. The Seahawks have lost four of the last five games, the only win against the John Wolford-led Rams. The all-knowing betting markets have the Seahawks’ implied playoff probability at around 35%, with the Chiefs, Jets and Rams remaining on the schedule.
One last thing: I’m legally obligated by the Football Nerd Union to mention that Kyle “Boomer” Shanahan punted from the opponent’s 43 yard line on 4th & 2 on the first play of the second quarter. And this was after the 49ers got into strong go-for position (+1.5 win probability) by drawing a Seahawks penalty at the end of the first quarter. It didn’t end up hurting the 49ers, who are justifiably supreme confident in their defense.