The QB GOAT Series: 8-6

One of the greatest peaks ever, the all-time efficiency King, and a quarterback who can still get into the top-5

I wrote up the methodology for how I measure quarterback career value and highlighted a few honorable mentions in a post last week.

I don’t agree 100% with all the rankings, but the beauty of stats-based analysis is that we can take representative data from nearly one million quarterback dropbacks over a century of the modern NFL to rank-order quarterbacks by value. Good luck watching, grading and comparing every quarterback snap from 1947 to 2022 and then forming your own film-watcher list.

I’m going to take this list in smallish chucks, going three-at-a-time until I get to the final two, who you might be able to guess, though the ordering may remain a mystery.

Links to past posts:

• 50-48, 47-45, 44-42, 41-39, 38-36, 35-33, 32-30, 29-27, 26-24, 23-21, 20-18, 17-15, 14-12, 11-9

No. 8: OTTO GRAHAM

Regular: 11th, Peak: 8th, Playoffs: 15th

Otto Graham achieved some of the highest highs as a player, but his shorter longevity keeps him out of true GOAT discussions. He also played the first few years of his career in the All-American Football Conference (AAFC), an upstart venture that only lasted from 1946 to 1949, and suffered from a lack of talent in comparison to established NFL. Graham does suffer a little from not having his 1946 season make the starting timeframe for this analysis, which goes from 1947. Graham had a great passing season (10.5 yards per attempt) in his rookie year, but at lower volume (174 attempts). Graham’s 112.1 quarterback rating that season wasn’t surpassed for 49 years, by Joe Montana in 1989.

Three of Graham’s four most valuable seasons by QB GOAT methodology came in his first three seasons in the AAFC, while the Browns dominated all opponents, going a combined 37-4-3 from 1946 to 1949 and winning all four AAFC championships. The AAFC didn’t start with collegiate draft, and instead allowed teams to sign players to seed the league. This proved a huge advantage for Paul Brown, who had extensive contacts to sign players out of school and military, including paying Graham a stipend for a year before he was discharged from the Navy in the summer of 1946.

Regardless of the competition in the AAFC, you can’t argue that Graham should have done more with what he was given. From 1947 to 1949, Graham was selected as First-Team All-Pro every year, led the AAFC in passing yards each season. He also was a good athlete, running for a total of 253 yards and nine touchdowns in 1948 and 1949.

Things didn’t slow down for Graham and the Browns when they joined the NFL in 1950, going to the Championship game in each of Graham’s six NFL season, winning three. In an early hint of the matteringness of quarterback and running backs, the Browns didn’t skip a beat as All-World fullback Marion Motley slowed down in the 50s and left the Browns after the 1953 season. Yet, the Browns’ results fell off of a cliff when Graham retired, going from 9-2-1 and NFL champions to 5-7 and fourth in their division.

Despite winning seven championships (AAFC & NFL) in 10 seasons, Graham wasn’t outstanding in the postseason, at least not versus the considerably high bar he set during the regular season. His postseason 7.0 yards per attempt was good, but off from 9.0 in the regular season. He also had 14 postseason touchdowns to 17 interceptions versus 174 to 135 in the regular season.

But Graham did have some legendary performances, including in what may have been the most important game of his career, the 1950 NFL championship. While the Browns played well during the regular season, many thought the former AAFC squad couldn’t dethrone the NFL’s best in their first season, but the Browns beat the Rams 30-28 in the championship game. Graham was a completely dominant force, throwing for 298 yards and four touchdowns, while accounting to 99 of the Browns 116 rushing yards. After losing the championship game for three straight seasons, the Browns returned to win in 1954 and 1955, with Graham scoring a combined 10 touchdowns in the air and on the ground over those two games, averaging 10 yards per pass attempt.

Graham left behind legendary efficiency numbers, some that still haven’t been broken. Graham is still the all-time leader in yards per attempt (9.0, next closest 8.3), and his 81.4% winning percentage is the best ever. Graham held the record for most quarterback rushing touchdowns (44) until it was broken by Cam Newton in 2016.

No. 7: STEVE YOUNG

Regular: 7th, Peak: 2nd, Playoffs: 13th