The QB GOAT Series: 29-27

Three Super Bowl champions with outstanding longevity

I wrote up the methodology for how I measure quarterback career value and highlighted a few honorable mentions in a post last week.

I don’t agree 100% with all the rankings, but the beauty of stats-based analysis is that we can take representative data from nearly one million quarterback dropbacks over a century of the modern NFL to rank-order quarterbacks by value. Good luck watching, grading and comparing every quarterback snap from 1947 to 2022 and then forming your own film-watcher list.

I’m going to take this list in smallish chucks, going three-at-a-time until I get to the final two, who you might be able to guess, though the ordering may remain a mystery.

Links to past posts:

• 50-48, 47-45, 44-42, 41-39, 38-36, 35-33, 32-30

No. 29: BEN ROETHLISBERGER

Regular: 20th, Peak: 40th, Playoffs: 36th

Ben Roethlisberger falls into a similar bucket with a good number of franchise quarterbacks: consistently valuable until a late-career decline, but never a consistently top-3 quarterback. In an earlier era, that profile might not be enough to warrant a Hall-of-Fame induction. But the decades of the 2000s and 2010s were the most competitive ever at quarterback (2020s not stacking up quite as well, so far), so never being able to break through and best the entirety of Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers in any season is understandable, even for an elite quarterback. What separates Roethlisberger and Russell Wilson (QB GOAT No. 30) and their Hall-of-Fame credentials from Tony Romo (QB GOAT No. 32), Philip Rivers (TBD) and Matt Ryan (TBD) are the Super Bowl appearances and victories.

Roethlisberger was one of the most successful quarterbacks of his era in Super Bowl success. On it’s face, the resume of three Super Bowl wins and another appearance doesn’t project as dominance, but Roethlisberger’s era and conference overlapped with Brady and the Patriots going to eight Super Bowls. Without giving extra credit for winning the Super Bowl, on top of the playoff QB GOAT value methodology, Roethlisberger doesn’t rank higher than Rivers and Ryan, but his Hall-of-Fame selection is locked in with the two rings.

Roethlisberger was a lower-volume, but incredibly efficient quarterback from his first snap. Famously entering the NFL in the same draft as Eli Manning and Philip Rivers, Roethlisberger outperformed them both initially as the No. 11 pick. Roethlisberger replaced Tommy Maddox midway through the third quarter Week 2 of his rookie season, then went on to start the next 13 games, winning all of them. Roethlisberger won Offensive Rookie of the Year, finishing seventh in ANY/A and adding another 12 first-down conversions on the ground.

Roethlisberger took his efficiency to another level in his second year, finishing second to Payton Manning in ANY/A, but not garnering serious MVP consideration only playing 12 games and throwing 268 passes. Overall, Roethlisberger finished in the top-10 for ANY/A in every season but two (13 times!) before missing the 2019 campaign with an Week 1 elbow injury. The QB GOAT value methodology reflects his status as an elite accumulator of consistent value, more than a peak player. Roethelisberger broke through to the top-5 in passing efficiency three times.

Younger football fans might not realize how much Roethlisberger’s shifted stylistically in his career, going from lower-volume and extending plays to a quick-passing, low-aDOT profile. Roethlisberger didn’t have 500 pass attempts in a season until 2009, and then first cleared 550 attempts in 2013. Roethlisberger led the NFL in sack yards in 2007 and 2009, and his sack rate was above 7% his first eight seasons. Starting in 2014, Roethlisberger was on pace for at least 550 attempts every season, hitting the 600 threshold six times, and leading the NFL in yards per game three times. His sack rate fell precipitously in the middle of his career, never topping 4.1% from 2015-2020. Roethlisberger suffered a number of smaller injuries earlier in his career, likely serving as the motivation to switch to a safer style. The fact that he could win and be efficient both ways is a positive for his career assessment.

Roethlisberger made the postseason in twelve of the 17 seasons he started at least 11 games, going a combined 13-10, averaging a respectable 6.0 ANY/A, roughly half-a-yard worse than his regular-season average. Roethlisbeger never had a losing record as starter, but he also received relatively good support from a defense that ranked in the top-10 in opponent EPA per play 11 times. Roethlisberger played well in the Steelers two Super Bowl runs in 2005 and 2008, with a combined 7.3 ANY/A, throwing for 1,500 yards, 10 touchdowns and four interceptions.

No. 28: KEN STABLER

Regular: 74th, Peak: 34th, Playoffs: 4th