I'll predict Russ finishes 18th in AQE in 2023. There's no reason to think he'll continue to be *this* bad, but there's also no reason to think he'll suddenly regain his prime form again. Regardless, thank you for analytically explaining why Denver should keep him for one more season. Hackett seems to have been a historically bad head coach, and perhaps with a more competent staff Wilson can once again look competent himself.
Do you think it’s possible to sustain high-end success with a mid-tier QB without just hoping you can build an elite roster around them (aka optimize strategy analytically somehow)?
The 49ers and Eagles both exist. It's not easy, but those 2 teams have managed to stay relevant without a top QB. Now that Jalen Hurts is playing well, they're among the Superbowl favorites even though few would argue that Hurts is in the tier of truly elite QBs
Sure but it’s more of a devil’s advocate question. Although hunting for the elite QB is hard, building and sustaining those complete types of rosters is also extremely hard (I’d call it lucky). I think it’s almost a question of should teams take dart throws in the draft at QBs in the 1st rd or try to roster build. Me personally, I’d prob always take one in the top 10-15 if I liked the prospect and wasn’t sold on my QB or else I’d try to be smart about positional value and implement analytically forward on-field schematics with my mid QB.
I think you should always be looking to upgrade at QB. In this situation, keeping Russ doesn't prevent that. If they even like a QB in 2023 and want to draft him in the late first then that's fine. I just don't like releasing Russ with no plan.
Roster building outside of QB is also a lot of luck, but the more decisions you have, the more you can incrementally move luck in your direction (hopefully). QB is one dart throw, 10, 20, 50 dart throws with other decisions will reflect more your skill and process.
Yeah my comment wasn’t necessarily referring to Russ but rather the last section of the article. I still bullishly believe in him to some extent. I just think teams are way too committed to their respective QBs. Justin Fields for example: I think he has tremendous upside and they should keep him but also take a shot with a top 5 pick bc of his passing issues. They have plenty of cap space and they should add weapons on offense to help evaluate whoever they play at QB. Zero chance they do this though.
Across all sports, teams tend to overvalue their own assets. Probably a combination of sunk cost fallacy and willfully ignoring the players' red flags. Speaking of Fields, a QB who gains 30 net passing yards on 28 dropbacks is probably not going to evolve into a franchise cornerstone. Chicago needs to be honest and realize that Fields may never become a serviceable passer and draft his potential replacement this year. Instead, they'll roll with Fields and win 7 games a year until everyone gets fired.
I'll predict Russ finishes 18th in AQE in 2023. There's no reason to think he'll continue to be *this* bad, but there's also no reason to think he'll suddenly regain his prime form again. Regardless, thank you for analytically explaining why Denver should keep him for one more season. Hackett seems to have been a historically bad head coach, and perhaps with a more competent staff Wilson can once again look competent himself.
This was brilliantly researched and written. Great stuff, Kevin.
👊👊
Hey Kevin, how did Montana 1988 sneak onto the list of rock bottom veteran seasons? His ANYA+ that year was 115
Huh. I guess I messed that up. Not sure what I did pulling the data. Thanks for pointing that out.
Do you think it’s possible to sustain high-end success with a mid-tier QB without just hoping you can build an elite roster around them (aka optimize strategy analytically somehow)?
The 49ers and Eagles both exist. It's not easy, but those 2 teams have managed to stay relevant without a top QB. Now that Jalen Hurts is playing well, they're among the Superbowl favorites even though few would argue that Hurts is in the tier of truly elite QBs
Sure but it’s more of a devil’s advocate question. Although hunting for the elite QB is hard, building and sustaining those complete types of rosters is also extremely hard (I’d call it lucky). I think it’s almost a question of should teams take dart throws in the draft at QBs in the 1st rd or try to roster build. Me personally, I’d prob always take one in the top 10-15 if I liked the prospect and wasn’t sold on my QB or else I’d try to be smart about positional value and implement analytically forward on-field schematics with my mid QB.
I think you should always be looking to upgrade at QB. In this situation, keeping Russ doesn't prevent that. If they even like a QB in 2023 and want to draft him in the late first then that's fine. I just don't like releasing Russ with no plan.
Roster building outside of QB is also a lot of luck, but the more decisions you have, the more you can incrementally move luck in your direction (hopefully). QB is one dart throw, 10, 20, 50 dart throws with other decisions will reflect more your skill and process.
Yeah my comment wasn’t necessarily referring to Russ but rather the last section of the article. I still bullishly believe in him to some extent. I just think teams are way too committed to their respective QBs. Justin Fields for example: I think he has tremendous upside and they should keep him but also take a shot with a top 5 pick bc of his passing issues. They have plenty of cap space and they should add weapons on offense to help evaluate whoever they play at QB. Zero chance they do this though.
Across all sports, teams tend to overvalue their own assets. Probably a combination of sunk cost fallacy and willfully ignoring the players' red flags. Speaking of Fields, a QB who gains 30 net passing yards on 28 dropbacks is probably not going to evolve into a franchise cornerstone. Chicago needs to be honest and realize that Fields may never become a serviceable passer and draft his potential replacement this year. Instead, they'll roll with Fields and win 7 games a year until everyone gets fired.