Super Bowl LIX: Advanced Review

The Eagles take the title in a wipeout, with the Chiefs looking as if they had no chance

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

PHI vs KC (-1.5)

Well that was …… a game. In what was the most disappointing of outcomes for neutrals and Kansas City Chiefs fans, the game was almost over before the second half even kicked off. Using betting-market-derived win probability numbers from nflfastR, the Philadelphia Eagles had an estimated win probability of over 99.5% with 12 minutes remaining in the third quarter, the earliest that threshold has been broken in my database going back to 2000, other than Super Bowl XLVIII in 2014 (Seahawks vs Broncos, 14:36 remaining in the third).