Do you think the NFL is in a good spot in terms of how valuable elite QBs and rookie contract QBs are? I've heard that main PFF pod talk about how if you don't have either a top 8 QB or rookie contract you are pretty much screwed. If the tier of Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill, Derek Carr etc really have no chance of winning a Super Bowl, is this a good thing for the long term health of the league? it feels like eventually the league will get to a spot where these guys are thrown away for less talented rookie longshots on the promise of hitting the jackpot resulting in 20-24 teams having bad QBs. Maybe I'm being over reactionary but it feels like the league should find a way to make this tier of QB a tad more likely to win a Super Bowl to keep them in the league
Looking at the Super Bowl teams, what do you think are some key takeaways for the Chiefs and Eagles over the last few years? Could be individual moves but also the overall approach. Team building is probably the easiest to analyze, but could also include coaching staff, scheme, game management, etc. (Obviously Mahomes is hard to replicate, but that was also wasn't a sure thing.)
How many years behind MLB/NBA do you believe the NFL is from an analytical perspective? I think most if not all of the low hanging fruit in both sports has been scooped up, and the least analytically inclined team today would have been the sharpest a decade ago. How long until all 32 teams understand they should trust 4th down bots, throw more on early downs, invest in premium positions and the common talking points eventually have to start changing.
What is your preferred mix of game management vs letter of the law when it comes to officiating? Do you see a role for analytics in “optimizing” officiating? (The Bengals-Chiefs game plus a topic on Wharton Moneyball where they discussed the intersection of modelling and values sparked this question!)
Note: by game management, I’m thinking things like entertainment value (e.g. game length, game flow, reducing blowout probability, etc.) and makeup calls. By letter of the law, I'm thinking calling everything you see regardless of game situation or past missed calls (potentially even from a panel of refs watching the all 22)! If these are dumb definitions, feel free to redefine. : )
Do you think the NFL is in a good spot in terms of how valuable elite QBs and rookie contract QBs are? I've heard that main PFF pod talk about how if you don't have either a top 8 QB or rookie contract you are pretty much screwed. If the tier of Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill, Derek Carr etc really have no chance of winning a Super Bowl, is this a good thing for the long term health of the league? it feels like eventually the league will get to a spot where these guys are thrown away for less talented rookie longshots on the promise of hitting the jackpot resulting in 20-24 teams having bad QBs. Maybe I'm being over reactionary but it feels like the league should find a way to make this tier of QB a tad more likely to win a Super Bowl to keep them in the league
Looking at the Super Bowl teams, what do you think are some key takeaways for the Chiefs and Eagles over the last few years? Could be individual moves but also the overall approach. Team building is probably the easiest to analyze, but could also include coaching staff, scheme, game management, etc. (Obviously Mahomes is hard to replicate, but that was also wasn't a sure thing.)
How many years behind MLB/NBA do you believe the NFL is from an analytical perspective? I think most if not all of the low hanging fruit in both sports has been scooped up, and the least analytically inclined team today would have been the sharpest a decade ago. How long until all 32 teams understand they should trust 4th down bots, throw more on early downs, invest in premium positions and the common talking points eventually have to start changing.
Hi Kevin,
What is your preferred mix of game management vs letter of the law when it comes to officiating? Do you see a role for analytics in “optimizing” officiating? (The Bengals-Chiefs game plus a topic on Wharton Moneyball where they discussed the intersection of modelling and values sparked this question!)
Note: by game management, I’m thinking things like entertainment value (e.g. game length, game flow, reducing blowout probability, etc.) and makeup calls. By letter of the law, I'm thinking calling everything you see regardless of game situation or past missed calls (potentially even from a panel of refs watching the all 22)! If these are dumb definitions, feel free to redefine. : )