Preseason Buy/Sell Review: Week 3

The final preseason numbers for the 2023 rookie class give some signal for who will exceed usage and efficiency expectations this season

What has the preseason told us about Week 1 rookie starters?

Preseason doesn’t tell us as much as regular season action, but beggars can’t be choosers. It’s always funny to me that people discount preseason play so much, yet get excited about college action when most of the players on the field won’t even make it onto an NFL offseason roster.

We have enough data at this point to do some analysis, with the necessary caveats about small sample size and avoiding overreaction well emphasized. Two weeks ago, I went through the last 10 years of preseason data to see what advanced metrics from the preseason are most highly correlated with regular season outperformance, focusing specifically on quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers. I posted my preseason Week 2 review last Tuesday, and now we move on to the final preseason numbers.

In this analysis, I’m going to apply the insights from historical data to the 2023 preseason, specifically for rookie performance. While the preseason doesn’t tell us a lot generally, it does appear to have more signal for how rookie play will translate to the regular season than for veterans. I’ll restate the most important metrics by position below, and detail the numbers for 2023 rookies in visual and table formats.

2023 ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS

Looking back at my historical analysis of preseason data for rookie quarterbacks, we saw that there was a correlation, especially at the higher end of performance, between preseason and regular season PFF grading. But when you split the preseason data into clean-pocket and under-pressure buckets, the former losses all translation to the regular season. The relationship appears to be entirely derived from under pressure play.

Here’s a look back at the historical relationship between preseason pressured grades and regular season overall grading.

First looking back on only the final week of the preseason, here are the PFF passing grades for quarterbacks with at least four dropbacks (C.J. Stroud was never pressured in his four dropbacks).

Bryce Young had above median grading from both a clean pocket and under pressure last week. The No. 1 pick dropped back to pass 16 times, generating a solid 7.2 adjusted net yards per attempt, and displaying strong rushing ability. Young scrambled three times for 21 yards, forcing two missed tackles and converting two first downs. Young was charted by PFF with his best passing and rushing grades of the preseason. Young hasn’t done anything to make me question putting him in his own tier at the top of my rookie quarterback rankings.

No. 2 pick C.J. Stroud did nothing to damage his perception amoung Houston Texans’ coaches in his four dropbacks, completing two passes for 16 yards and a score. The smaller sample and lack of pressure faced leaves more questions for Young, but now know he’ll be the starter in Week 1 of the regular season, which the Texans announced immediately following the game.

Anthony Richardson garnered strong social media buzz, but it might reflect more of his fantasy football potential than ability to move the Indianapolis Colts’ offense down the field consistently. Richardson ran the ball five times, playing the entire first half for the Colts. Extrapolating that over 17 full games and you have 170 rushing attempts, which are highly valuable in fantasy scoring systems. Through the air, Richardson was much less successful, completing only only 6 of 17 passes, but with three incompletions charted as drops. Richardson was also charted by PFF with two turnover-worthy plays, which luckily didn’t end up in an actual turnover.

I like Richardson, and had him at the QB2 in this class. That said, we’ve seen in the preseason why he might struggle a little as a rookie. Concerns about his accuracy were too often waved away with faith in traits mattering more than anything by those making him the QB1 of the class. Even in fantasy, you need to move the ball somewhat to have a productive season, unless you can match Justin Fields-like outlier rushing efficiency.

The most outstanding under-pressure rookie in the preseason, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, put up another solid outing in relief of Deshaun Watson. The Cleveland Browns appear to have found their backup only using a fifth-round pick.

Looking at the entire preseason for rookie quarterbacks, many of the trends hold from my analysis last week.