Post-Draft Offseason Improvement Index

Offseason Improvement Index updated for the projected contributions of the 2023 rookie class

I’m updating the offseason improvement index now that we know the exact draft picks for 2023. In the earlier iteration of the Improvement Index, draft values were estimates based on the draft capital of each team going into the draft.

Knowing the exact positions added in the draft gives us a better estimate for how snaps will shift around on the depth chart, and the corresponding efficiency changes by position group. Here’s a longer explanation of the Index’s methodology from the earlier post:

The index is built on the rigorously researched NFL Plus/Minus metric, which translates player values into intuitive, concrete and position-agnostic currency of points added or lost. The index is the point differential gain or loss each team during the offseason, beginning with the first player cuts in early February.

The model behind the Improvement Index projects the numbers of snaps and per-play efficiency for each player in every facet of offensive and defensive play: passing, rushing, receiving, blocking, pass rush, run defense and coverage. These models were trained on years of historical data, going back to 2006. The model incorporates player- and team-level assumptions based on each player’s prior performance, team coaching tendencies, forecasted opponents, and championship odds. These features help the model estimate the likely allocation of snaps among each position group and the likely points-added/lost per snap for each player based on that usage and historical trends.

The full list of player movement and value added is available on the Unexpected Points subscriber Google sheet.