The truth is that Lamar Jackson has never been viewed as an elite quarterback in NFL front offices, but his unique style brings more rewards than risks
I always thought the way the media covered him was a one-sided. Especially ESPN. It's always: There is no doubt teams should be going after him! His durability is not a concern at all!
Thank you for writing something different than just speculating about collusion (which most people who use the word don't what it even means). I think there is also some psychological hesitation to not being able to project a QB as "your guy" for the next 10+ years. Which is somewhat ironic since executives routinely make short term decisions to save their jobs or win now. But that position just seems to elicit different decision making than others.
One question I have is what is a reasonable timeline for aggregating and evaluating value of trades for 1st round picks? Should you value the entire rookie contract (4-5 years), maybe weighted for the first few years, or should you use something closer to a 2-3 year evaluation that may be better for most transactions such as free agents.
I think the entire contract works, but there could be an adjustment. Bigger issue is with some positions that probably provide more surplus value on their second/third deals: QB, TE, maybe OT. Those could be underestimating the value since
This analysis shows why data is ultimately more useful than peoples' opinions. I've admittedly fallen into the same trap as the executives in the Sando poll in thinking that Jackson's value was somehow lesser than traditional QB's because his style of play isn't sustainable. That is to say I'm surprised that running QB's maintain their rushing value through the middle portion of their careers, and this trend gives me more confidence that Lamar will be worth a mega deal for at least the next 4-5 years.
With the caveat that we don't have a lot of examples to go on, rushing hasn't been a major injury/decline concern for QBs in their late 20s. That lack of sample does bring extra risk.
I'm a big Lamar fan, and it's infuriating to see NFL teams vastly underestimate and undervalue him. I'm just glad I'm not a fan of a team who could get him and isn't.
I did have one question though that you didn't address in the column:
Do you have any other data/numbers/opinions about how Lamar is producing similar numbers to his peers with VASTLY inferior talent around him, especially at receiver? I do think it's worth noting that Josh Allen made a huge jump after the Bills got Diggs, and every other QB has at least 1 Elite WR, except maybe Herbert who has 2 high level WRs instead. Meanwhile, Lamar is throwing to Devin Duvernay and Demarcus Robinson.
I always thought the way the media covered him was a one-sided. Especially ESPN. It's always: There is no doubt teams should be going after him! His durability is not a concern at all!
Thank you for writing something different than just speculating about collusion (which most people who use the word don't what it even means). I think there is also some psychological hesitation to not being able to project a QB as "your guy" for the next 10+ years. Which is somewhat ironic since executives routinely make short term decisions to save their jobs or win now. But that position just seems to elicit different decision making than others.
One question I have is what is a reasonable timeline for aggregating and evaluating value of trades for 1st round picks? Should you value the entire rookie contract (4-5 years), maybe weighted for the first few years, or should you use something closer to a 2-3 year evaluation that may be better for most transactions such as free agents.
I think the entire contract works, but there could be an adjustment. Bigger issue is with some positions that probably provide more surplus value on their second/third deals: QB, TE, maybe OT. Those could be underestimating the value since
This analysis shows why data is ultimately more useful than peoples' opinions. I've admittedly fallen into the same trap as the executives in the Sando poll in thinking that Jackson's value was somehow lesser than traditional QB's because his style of play isn't sustainable. That is to say I'm surprised that running QB's maintain their rushing value through the middle portion of their careers, and this trend gives me more confidence that Lamar will be worth a mega deal for at least the next 4-5 years.
With the caveat that we don't have a lot of examples to go on, rushing hasn't been a major injury/decline concern for QBs in their late 20s. That lack of sample does bring extra risk.
Love the article Kevin! The data doesn't lie!
I'm a big Lamar fan, and it's infuriating to see NFL teams vastly underestimate and undervalue him. I'm just glad I'm not a fan of a team who could get him and isn't.
I did have one question though that you didn't address in the column:
Do you have any other data/numbers/opinions about how Lamar is producing similar numbers to his peers with VASTLY inferior talent around him, especially at receiver? I do think it's worth noting that Josh Allen made a huge jump after the Bills got Diggs, and every other QB has at least 1 Elite WR, except maybe Herbert who has 2 high level WRs instead. Meanwhile, Lamar is throwing to Devin Duvernay and Demarcus Robinson.