NFL Power Rankings: Wild Card Round

Bills, 49ers and Bengals are justifiably big favorites, but perhaps the Vikings and Chargers are a bit overpriced in the betting markets

My adjusted-score based team strength tiers are well aligned with the teams that made the playoffs. All the teams in the top-3 tiers made the playoffs, with three of the four in the third tier also getting in (sorry Packers fans).

The Ravens and Dolphins would be tier 3 teams if we assumed Lamar Jackson and Tua Tagovalioa were playing, we know the latter is out, and the buzz and betting markets are telling us it’s looking doubtful for the former.

Both offenses move from good, or great in the case of the Dolphins, to bottom-7 without their starting quarterbacks. Despite a promising preseason, Skylar Thompson has been a rough watch in the few games he played this year (-0.26 EPA per play, third worst among 53 quarterbacks with at least 100 plays).

Tyler Huntley was wasn’t throwing at Ravens practice on Wednesday, and there shouldn’t be much hope for improvement from Anthony Edwards versus what we saw against the Bengals last week (-0.31 EPA per play, -21.3% CPOE, both bottom-5 among Week 18 starters).

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