NFL Plus/Minus: Who Should Be The 2024 NFL Offensive Player Of The Year?

Using proprietary NFL Plus/Minus methodology to concretely assign value to all non-quarterback offensive players

I (re)introduced my favored methodology for measuring player value two years ago, and then applied it to all the non-quarterbacks in the NFL the last two season. Tyreek Hill was the most valuable offensive non-quarterback in my 2022 and 2023 seasonal analyses, though Justin Jefferson and Christian McCaffrey won the respective Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) awards in those seasons. Jefferson and McCaffrey did finish third and second, respectively, in the seasons they won the awards, so my methodology isn’t far detached from voter sentiment, instead emphasizing different aspects of player value.

According to betting markets and popular sentiment, Saquon Barkley is a lock to win the OPOY award, but he doesn’t rank that near the top in this methodology. The OPOY is not explicitly designed to give the most weight to “value”, but instead more of the most outstanding player. It often defaults to non-quarterbacks, but that’s not always the case. For the purpose of my analysis, I will be using points added as the universal value metric to determine the award, and I’ll restrict the candidates to non-quarterbacks.

METHODOLOGY

I explain the methodology for valuing one facet, or phase, of player contributions in the NFL Plus/Minus introductory post: receiver route running. I don’t want to restate everything from that post, so please look back for clarification on the process. In this analysis, I’m applying that same methodology to the four aspects of non-quarterback value contribution for offensive players (rushing, route running, pass blocking and run blocking).

Before we get into the results of the analysis for every non-quarterback offensive position, let’s walk through a quick, specific example of how clustering works, using the route facet for wide receivers, highlighting some 2024 player results.

Without getting bogged down in the details, the graph above divides all wide receivers seasons from 2016 to 2024 with at least 50 routes into five different, color-coded clusters. For each receiver season, I calculated a number of efficiency and volume statistics and settled upon six for best differentiation receiver types: routes per game, slot rate, yards per route run, touchdown as a percentage of routes, first-down percentage, deep rate (percentage of 20+ yard targets) and yards per reception. I translated these seven features into principal components to minimize multicollinearity and make for easier visualization. The technique I used to form groups of similar receiver seasons is called k-means clustering. With this clustering technique, you choose the number of clusters, or groups, to form.

The dashed arrows extending out from the center of the plot show the directional force of the different features and the length of the arrows indicates the importance of each feature on the cluster assignment. The volume of routes and route-based efficiency for yards, first downs and touchdowns all pull in the same direction to the upper-left. Touchdowns are the least impactful feature, which makes sense as they are the noisiest stat of the group. Higher slot rate is directionally indicated by player seasons at the top of the plot, with yards per reception and deep rate mostly being opposing features. It makes sense that slot receivers are less likely to go deep and have higher yards per reception, and vice versa for receivers who mostly line up out wide.

From these clusters, you can determine the cluster-averages for team offensive EPA when the receivers are on- or off-the-field, then apply them across the entire cluster, thereby reducing noise. Remember that this is just a simplified example of one clustering sample. In the total analysis, I repeat this exercise 100 times, with randomly assigned numbers of clusters, for each of the facets (route running, rushing, run blocking, pass blocking) for every position group. I then average up all the cluster value estimates for each player to get an overall number. There are also additional steps to add stability to the results, like application of the results through a regression, that bring us to the final numbers.

THE RESULTS

With the nerd stuff out of the way, let’s dive into the results for each position, before bringing them all together to see the most valuable non-quarterbacks on offense in 2024. First, let’s start with wide receivers.

The columns above represent the total points added in the 2024 season, the points added on a per-game basis and then the number of snaps and points added for the two main components of offensive play: passing and rushing. The pass snaps and plus/minus values combine those for routes and pass blocking. The rush values combine rushing attempts and run blocking. For receivers, nearly all of their pass value comes from route running, one of the most valuable facets of NFL play.

The leader in 2024 NFL Plus/Minus among wide receivers is Ja’Marr Chase, which aligns with common perception. Chase is the “triple-crown” winner, leading the NFL in receptions (127), receiving yards (1,708) and receiving touchdowns (17). While those box score counting stats often align with NFL Plus/Minus value, it isn’t a strict correlation. Chase was also near the top of the NFL in yards per route run (third), touchdowns per route run (first) and yards after the catch per reception (fifth). You combine Chase’s outstanding efficiency stats with superb volume in routes run per game (second), and that’s the formula for maximizing total value.

There’s an argument that per-route value stats should be more important than those elevated by volume, but I think both should be considered. You don’t want to give too much credit to a receiver playing from behind more often in a pass-heavy system, but that higher volume also makes elite efficiency more difficult to obtain. Plus, higher sample means more confidence that a player’s production was actually elite, and wouldn’t have regressed significantly if they were on the field more often.

The other candidate for most valuable NFL receiver is on the opposite side of the volume equation, and that’s A.J. Brown. Brown missed four games, and ran fewer than 30 routes in eight of the 14 games he did play. Most of Brown’s lack of volume was due to the Eagles throwing the fewest passes in the NFL. Even so, Brown equaled Chase in per-game Plus/Minus added, meaning he had significantly better value on a per-route basis.