NFL draft second- and third-round analytical review

Using consensus data from mock drafts and big boards, plus surplus value considerations, to analyze the Day 2 of the NFL draft

In this post, I follow up on my first-round analytical review and give all the numbers and insight you number on the second and third round picks on Day 2 of the NFL draft. I eschew the vibes-based analysis that dominates NFL media and judge the Day 2 round on explicit metrics that matter. I leveraged the excellent weighted mock draft data from Grinding the Mocks and consensus media Big Board data aggregated from Jack Lichtenstein on his beautifully website. In addition, I estimated the NFL value and subtracted the contractual commitment of each pick to determine the player’s surplus value, or value you’d have to pay in free agency over what the rookie contract demands. I went through this exercise earlier this month building a more useful Big Board using Sports Info Solutions draft grading and positional contract data from Over the Cap.

Let’s get to the data. The first section below has a table with a row for every pick. It has the pick number, the mock draft-based estimated draft position, the consensus big board ranking, and the estimated values of the prospect, his contract amount and the surplus value to the team. I also have a plot showing the differences better the actual pick numbers and the consensus opinions on mocks and big boards. Let’s get to the data.

THE SECOND ROUND

The “Value” number is my estimate for salary cap equivalent for the player based on positional value and historical trends for prospects taken at his draft slot. Contract is the annual amount due, and surplus value is the difference that the team gains acquiring the player through the draft.