My point also being that it’s not just probabilities that go into decision making. Game theory and situation is also a powerful tool to consider on top of the models. But just like the models you need to have a clear and consistent process.
Great discussion on the fourth down decisions. Another angle I heard on another podcast is the Packers had to respect not jumping offsides (I believe even the broadcast said they might just be trying to get them to jump). So it being a very short distance, having a great oline, and probably having a small advantage in snap timing, makes even more sense to lean on your strengths as a team. Also the only time most coaches try to validate going against the model is being more conservative, you rarely see more aggression than the models but you probably should see equal action on both sides over time.
My point also being that it’s not just probabilities that go into decision making. Game theory and situation is also a powerful tool to consider on top of the models. But just like the models you need to have a clear and consistent process.
Great discussion on the fourth down decisions. Another angle I heard on another podcast is the Packers had to respect not jumping offsides (I believe even the broadcast said they might just be trying to get them to jump). So it being a very short distance, having a great oline, and probably having a small advantage in snap timing, makes even more sense to lean on your strengths as a team. Also the only time most coaches try to validate going against the model is being more conservative, you rarely see more aggression than the models but you probably should see equal action on both sides over time.