GUEST POST: Grinding the Mocks First/Final Mock Draft

Benjamin Robinson of Grinding the Mocks gives us his data-informed mock draft

Benjamin Robinson is the creator of Grinding the Mocks: : using mock drafts, the wisdom of crowds, and data science to predict professional sports drafts.

ALL HAIL THE HYPNO-CHART or a reminder that about 27 of the players in this mock will come from the Grinding the Mocks Top 32 and the remaining 6 from the rest of the Grinding the Mocks Top 50!  Players falling out of Round 1:  Jer’Zhan Newton (DT, Illinois), Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB, Alabama), Michael Penix (QB, Washington), Bo Nix (QB, Oregon), and Darius Robinson (DT, Missouri).

GROUND RULES:

Here is a quick reminder about the ground rules I'm using for this mock draft:

• I'm projecting one trade, which could be folly but I take it as a sign of personal growth.

• I am only taking these factors into account when formulating my mock selections:

• the player's Expected Draft Position;

• the drafting team's most mocked players and positions;

• the drafting team's history of selecting players earlier or later than expected;

Grinding the Mocks 2024 NFL Mock Draft (* Pick Acquired by Trade)

1. Chicago Bears (*), Caleb Williams, QB, USC

Duh.

2. Washington Commanders, Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

Trying to be original here but preparing to be wrong

3. New England Patriots, Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

This has to be a QB, right?

4. Arizona Cardinals, Marvin Harrison, WR, Ohio State

Been set in stone for quite some time it seems.

5. Minnesota Vikings (*), J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

My lone trade for the QB darling of the moment.

6. New York Giants, Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

I’m told he’s more a 1B to Harrison’s 1A so take that for what you will.  OBJ Pt II?

7. Tennessee Titans, Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

A top-notch OT prospect for Bill Callahan to mold and protect whichever QB Brian Callahan has throwing the ball.

8. Atlanta Falcons, Byron Murphy, DT, Texas

I’m throwing this pick out there as a bit of a wildcard—an insurance policy for Grady Jarrett and a top athlete and producer at DT to boot.

9. Chicago Bears, Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

I’m told he’s more a 1C to Harrison’s 1A and Nabers’ 1B so take that for what you will.  OK, this joke is officially old.

10. New York Jets, Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State

The Jets shouldn’t be satisfied with their OTs from Free Agency. Fuaga can play guard to start as well.

11. Los Angeles Chargers (*), Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

The positional value conversation wasn’t always a concern in recent years when Joe Hortiz was with the Ravens (see Kyle Hamilton and Tyler Linderbaum) so they pick the top player left on the board regardless of position.

12. Denver Broncos, Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama

The top EDGE falls slightly but to a team that needs sack production and shouldn’t have to force a QB pick.

13. Las Vegas Raiders, Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington

A prospect that is the poster child for versatility at OL in this class.

14. New Orleans Saints, Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State

Fashanu could have been OT1 last year. He’s still a top prospect though, especially as a pass blocker!

15. Indianapolis Colts, Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

Gimme, gimme, gimme some corners. Mitchell offers a highly athletic option for the Gus Bradley defense that needs to improve their pass defense in 2024.

16. Seattle Seahawks, Graham Barton, OT, Duke

Versatility is the new black, I guess? Ascending player in my data over the last month.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars, Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama

I viewed Terrion Arnold as a strong prospect coming into the draft process and even contemplated putting him at 8 to the Falcons. Instead, he winds up in Jacksonville adding more firepower and depth to a defense that is in transition.

18. Cincinnati Bengals, J.C. Latham, OT, Alabama

Latham is getting Top-5 buzz now so he will probably not be an option here but I think this is closer to where he’s been the entire cycle than Top 5.

19. Los Angeles Rams, Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA

Latu’s medical could put him out of Round 1 or could have him as high as in the top 10. I meet in around the middle and have Latu going to a smart team in the Rams who will be making their first Round 1 pick since 2016.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers, Brian Thomas, WR, LSU

Another rumor of a medical issue could have Thomas drop out of Round 1. The talent is too much!

21. Miami Dolphins, Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State

I’m surprised Verse is still here in this exercise. You can never have enough pass rushers!

22. Philadelphia Eagles, Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

I’m told he could go higher than this.  Will this be the year that the tackles are going to hit or break the record of 11 in the first round?

23. Los Angeles Chargers (*), Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma

If the Chargers decide to “punt” on OT earlier in the draft, then Guyton is a solid development option with upside and would be good value at 23.

24. Dallas Cowboys, Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas

I firmly believe that Worthy could go higher than even this due to his solid profile and truly blazing speed, which the league dearly covets. Worthy would be another weapon for Dak to deploy to help the Cowboys reach their potential.

25. Green Bay Packers, Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa

The Packers sometimes surprise here so I could see Marshawn Kneeland or Jordan Morgan being the pick or even Kingsley Suamataia but I think adding a difference maker in the secondary in DeJean will be something that the Packers can’t turn down.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State

I adore Chop Robinson, starting with his last name and ending with his profile as an EDGE. He’ll get compared to Micah Parsons due to their shared alma mater but he was a pressure machine at Penn State while Parsons was more of a true LB.

27. Arizona Cardinals (*), Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson

Wiggins will get slighted for being small but advanced metrics love his cover ability. Jonathan Gannon will find a way to deploy him that maximizes his strengths and improves the depth in the Cardinals’ secondary.

28. Buffalo Bills, Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas

I don’t think the Bills will get as lucky as the Vikings did when they replaced Stefon Diggs but you either try with quantity or quality.  The Bills should at least explore both options in the 2024 Draft.

29. Detroit Lions, Marshawn Kneeland, EDGE, Western Michigan

This mock pick makes too much sense given the position of need for the Lions and with Marshawn Kneeland being an in-state kid. The Western Michigan product is a strong candidate for the prospect that will likely be outside of the GTM Top 50 that makes Round 1 each year.

30. Baltimore Ravens, Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona

MUST HAVE MORE OFFENSIVE LINEMEN!!!  In all seriousness, Morgan can play guard and tackle so the more versatility the merrier.

31. San Francisco 49ers, Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina

Legette is a dart throw given his status as a “Top 30” visitor for the 49ers and the fact that he is a strong candidate to potentially go at Pick 33 to the Carolina Panthers if he doesn’t get selected here.

32. Kansas City Chiefs, Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU

I’ve been seeing a lot of talk of WR for the Chiefs but I just don’t see that in their recent history where they’ve rather targeted WR in the Day 2 range.  Instead, they draft a very nice developmental OT that could step in so the Chiefs don’t need to bring Donovan Smith back, which they may do anyway. Premium position never hurts either and the BYU connection with Andy Reid.

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Mock Draft Results (Expected Draft Position Data as of 4/23/2024)