Though the Bills did a lot of things right starting in 2017, going all in for a single season (2022) is almost always the wrong strategy. Even the most loaded roster will only win the SB maybe 25% of the time, so there's a good chance that mortgaging the future for one "best shot" at a ring will not yield the desired outcome. The 2020 Bucs and 2021 Rams are the glaring exceptions, but I can't think of any other time that the strategy paid off.
We've seen many examples of less talented versions of a team finally breaking through for a SB win. The 2006 Colts, 2012 Ravens, 2018 Patriots, and 2023 Chiefs immediately come to mind. If the Allen-led Bills keep their window open with a 5-10% SB probability each season, there's a decent chance that lightning will strike and get them their elusive ring. And more than likely it won't be their best squad that ends up hoisting the Lombardi.
Great stuff. The recent Bills teams are a great example of outcome bias at work—they were consistently great teams both offensively and defensively who never got it done in the playoffs and are widely panned as not good enough.
Do you have more context on "teams are all roughly equally good at player evaluation"? That goes against my intuition, and I'd love to look at a more thorough analysis to see what I may be missing.
Though the Bills did a lot of things right starting in 2017, going all in for a single season (2022) is almost always the wrong strategy. Even the most loaded roster will only win the SB maybe 25% of the time, so there's a good chance that mortgaging the future for one "best shot" at a ring will not yield the desired outcome. The 2020 Bucs and 2021 Rams are the glaring exceptions, but I can't think of any other time that the strategy paid off.
We've seen many examples of less talented versions of a team finally breaking through for a SB win. The 2006 Colts, 2012 Ravens, 2018 Patriots, and 2023 Chiefs immediately come to mind. If the Allen-led Bills keep their window open with a 5-10% SB probability each season, there's a decent chance that lightning will strike and get them their elusive ring. And more than likely it won't be their best squad that ends up hoisting the Lombardi.
Great stuff. The recent Bills teams are a great example of outcome bias at work—they were consistently great teams both offensively and defensively who never got it done in the playoffs and are widely panned as not good enough.
Do you have more context on "teams are all roughly equally good at player evaluation"? That goes against my intuition, and I'd love to look at a more thorough analysis to see what I may be missing.