Divisional Round Sunday Football: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Eagles-Rams & Bills-Ravens

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

PHI (-7) vs LA

In a divisional round full of game results that didn’t match my fundamentals-based adjusted scores, the Philadelphia Eagles played about evenly against the Los Angeles Rams, but pulled out a narrow win. Neither offense was great in the snowy and windy conditions, and the defining factors that led the Eagles to victory were turnover advantage and, to a lesser extent, more success converting late downs.

The Rams outgained the Eagles by over 50 yards on the day, had nearly as many first downs (16 to 18) and the exact same yards per play (5.7). Their two turnovers were highly costly. In particular, a Kyren Williams fumble from a high expected points context of 2nd & 2 with a 40-yard runback to the LA 10 (-7.3 EPA). The Eagles did fumble twice, but were on the luckier side to cover both.

The offensive story of the game for the Eagles was Saquon Barkley. The likely Offensive Player of the Year has kept up his historic play in the postseason. Barkley rushed for 205 yards in a game where the Eagles netted 350 in total. Barkley’s value shone through in his ability to make defenders miss on the second level, and take the ball all the way to the house. Barkley’s two 60-plus yard touchdowns gained +12.2 EPA for the Eagles.