Divisional Round Postseason NFL Power Rankings

The 49ers enter the playoffs strong and rested, while it's a three-way tie as to which team is the best in the AFC

* The detailed information for power rankings are on the paid subscriber Google sheet (along with other site metrics). You can find previous Power Rankings write-ups on the landing page.

WHAT WE’VE LEARNED IN 2023

First let’s look at the team offensive and defensive efficiencies in 2023, using my adjusted-score methodology to measure performance, and factoring in strength of schedule.

So far, the playoffs have done a good job filtering for the best teams in the NFL. Going into last week, all the teams with higher power ratings won their Wild Card matchups, other than the Cowboys and the Dolphins, though the latter was virtually tied with their opponent and on the road, making them a slight underdog by my numbers against the Chiefs.

The evidence we got in the Wild Card round had the biggest positive effects on the unit strengths for the Chiefs defense and Packers offense. By the numbers, the Dolphins offense was the second best (49ers first) in the NFL over the course of the regular season. Holding them the Dolphins to seven points is probably less impressive than the effect in model, accounting for the weather conditions in Kansas City. I’m going to add a slight adjustments to account for weather in the final power rankings/ratings numbers below, giving the Chiefs defense slightly less credit for the Dolphins struggles.

The Packers offense simply opened up a can of whoop-ass on the Cowboys’ relatively strong defense. Now, my numbers going into the Wild Card round were much more skeptical of the Cowboys defense than their unadjusted opponent efficiency forecasted, as they beat up on a lot of poor competition, and squeezed a lot of defensive EPA value out of a fairly mediocre opponent success rate, i.e. the fundamentals pointed to EPA measures weakening once opponent turnovers and big-play rates regressed.

That said, the Packers offense is definitely “for real”, with their seasonal adjusted scoring rate by my numbers above that of the Ravens and Chiefs, ranking fourth best in the NFL. The problem for the Packers will likely be defense, which benefited greatly from turnovers against the Cowboys, while giving up a high-level success rate that didn’t improve their positioning as a below-average unit.

The positioning of the remaining playoff team reflects the relatively close team ratings of the AFC near the top, with the Ravens, Bills and Chiefs all close, and the strong possibility the the actual offensive strength of the Chiefs better than what they’ve displayed this season. Home field advantage makes the AFC Championship odds favor the Ravens, then Bills, then Chiefs, but they’re almost exact equals by my numbers.

THE 2023 POWER RANKINGS AND RATINGS

Below visualizes the NFL ranked by what I’m calling “Power Rating”, or the estimates of each team’s point differential playing a league-average opponent on a neutral field.