Consensus 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Version 2.0

Leveraging hundreds of media and analyst mock drafts to project the consensus picks and range of outcomes through the first round of the 2024 NFL draft

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J.J. McCarthy is a huge riser, with a better than 50% chance of being a top-5 pick

This is the second version of the consensus mock data, which I first published a few weeks back. Now we’ve collected a lot more mock draft data, solidifying potential landing spots and ranges of outcomes for the top prospects. Before the draft, I’ll expand the analysis to the first two rounds, as more public mock draft data goes beyond the first 32 picks.

You will not find a more comprehensive data set for mock drafts than this analysis, which is combined with Benjamin Robinson’s work at Grinding The Mocks which gauges the prior accuracy of established mock drafters. That work comes together in the “Weighted Mocks” score he has for each draft selection for every prospect. You’ll find that score on a percentage basis on the Y axis. Here’s an explanation of how weighted mocks is calculated from Robinson:

To calculate "Adjusted Mock Drafts", we use "Grinding the Mocks" pick-by-pick mock draft data at Player, Pick, and team level. As the draft order has only just been finalized, this data should become more firm as the draft process goes on.  Player, team, and pick mock drafts are counted and then adjusted accordingly based on the draftnik's historic accuracy and how close the mock draft is from the date of the NFL draft.

I’m using those weighted mock scores for each player and each potential selection, visualizing his range of outcomes below. Some players are almost certain to go to a particular team, others could reasonably fall to almost any team.

Okay, let’s get to the info. The top-32 players are given with their positions, headshots and school logos. The NFL teams are represented by team logos and primary colors.

No surprise here that Caleb Williams is almost completely solidified as the No. 1 overall pick. The Bears are moving forward with Williams, who has the appearance of separating from the rest of the quarterback prospect field as the draft process has progressed. Quarterbacks might go 1-2-3 (and 4 or 5?) in the draft, but I wouldn’t assume that means Williams has a close rival in terms of NFL evaluation.

Our first major shift from the Consensus Mock Draft 1.0 comes as early as the second overall pick. Jayden Daniel leaps over Drake Maye, but the changes in weighted mocks between the Commanders and Patriots is really a marginal shift, not a wholesale change.

The consensus betting odds are more certain that Daniels will be the No. 2 pick, with an implied probability of roughly 70% versus 60% derived from the mocks. There can be some lag effect with mock draft data. At the same time, markets can often overcorrect for updated perceptions.

Drake Maye is basically the inverse of Daniel in mock percentages as the No. 2 or No. 3 pick. The mock percentage above roughly mirrors betting markets, which also show a material chance (roughly 7-10%) that he will be the No. 4 pick. Presumably, this would happen if J.J. McCarthy or a non-quarterback is the selection for the Patriots. It would be highly unlikely that the Cardinals themselves would make that selection at No. 4 (though I wouldn’t hate it, honestly), meaning the Giants, Falcons or Vikings being the most likely trade-up partners according to the mock draft data.

Marvin Harrison Jr. represents the first relatively big difference between mock draft likelihood and betting markets. Individual mock drafters probably have a tougher time embodying the uncertainty of the real draft, with more defaulting Harrison to the Cardinals at No. 4 than thinking dynamically about what could happen at the pick.

The weighted mocks have the Cardinals as Harrison’s destination at around a 85% likelihood, whereas the markets have Harrison’s probability of being the No. 4 pick at around 60%. There’s some comparing apples-to-oranges here with the mock probability representing the team and the markets focused on pick number.

The next most likely selection at No. 4 according to betting markets is J.J. McCarthy (25-30%), which would place Harrison in the lap of the Chargers, who probably won’t be able to pass him up, despite the perception that new head coach Jim Harbaugh is laser focused on building through the trenches.

Malik Nabers is right after Harrison, but with a significantly smaller percentage of mock drafters making him the Cardinals pick at No. 4. In fact, there’s been a lot of creativity in mock drafts, with the idea that teams from the middle-of-the-round all the way to the Bills at pick 28 will move up to acquire him.

I don’t think the Bills are (or should be) in the headspace to think about a major trade-up for a receiver with the rest of the roster going through a “re-tooling” this offseason. There’s also nothing about Chris Ballard’s draft history that suggests he’s looking to trade up and give away a pick for the Colts. The Saints have rarely seen a trade-up they didn’t like, so that’s one scenario I could get behind as a realistic possibility.

The receiver run continues with Rome Odunze looking like a strong possibility to go in the top-10, with the Giants and Bears the two most likely landing spots. There hasn’t been a major shift in weighted mock percentages for Odunze since the 1.0 version of this exercise, but enough to move him up a few spots in the overall rankings.

The big change is a higher likelihood he’ll be the selection at No. 10 for the Jets, rather than potentially fall to a team selecting in the middle of the round. According to betting markets, Odunze is the most likely selection at No. 9 (~35%), which matches the mock draft assumptions that the Bears will pounce if he’s still on the board.

Mock drafts have really formed a consensus that Joe Alt is going to the Titans at the No. 7 pick, with the Chargers standing in their way a team with an earlier selection and interest in an offensive tackle. Perhaps the Cardinals decision at No. 4 with Harrison will be the domino that determines if Alt ends up with the Chargers or Titans.