Conference Championship NFL Power Rankings

Two of the three best teams in the NFL are out, with the Bills positioned to make their first Super Bowl appearance

For more info you can find the archive of previous Power Rankings posts, including the initial offseason rankings that detail much of the methodology of coming up with the Week 1 rankings, which only carry roughly 2% weight at this point in the season.

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STRENGTH

*Downloadable power ratings/rankings available in the paid subscriber Google sheet.

I revamped this plot below to only factor in 2024 numbers. It’s a clearer delineation of how teams have performed so far this year, knowing that I also add in some 2023 priors and injury adjustments, primarily at quarterback.

Of the top-tier teams, the Buffalo Bills remain in the conference championship, with the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs a notch below. At this point in the season, teams with multiple weeks of homefield advantage and the ability to rest players the final weeks of the regular season.

The Washington Commanders are on a run of luckier results. They’ve won seven straight games going back to Week 13 of the regular season, yet my fundamentals based adjusted scores only show one of those wins as more than a 7-point differential. In fact, three of those seven wins were “losses” by the adjusted scores. The Commanders’ offense has leveraged late-down and fourth-down success to boost their results, and they also have an average-ish defense.

UNEXPECTED POINTS POWER RANKINGS