Great article, very interested in more of this aggregation of information to help put the pieces together. Outside the top few picks, this probably lends itself well to a tier rating system since similar grades/positions are going to cluster.
I think the best but also maybe most difficult addition would be the range of outcomes. I'm not aware of any scouting system that does this player by player, but maybe it could be estimated on a positional or other basis. I think a probability based range of outcomes should be discussed/used much more with all player evaluations. What are your thoughts on this?
One other interesting piece that I remember reading is not only value of position by contract, but availability of those positions in draft vs free agency. But that's probably more of a larger team building philosophy.
My only issue with this rubric (and basically anyone that rates RBs) is that any type of grading system or WAR metric that compares one player at a position vs other players at the same position runs into an issue with RB value. You can do player value positional comparisons effectively with almost every position but RB. Since the team has to either run or pass the ball every play (and as you know passing is much more efficient than rushing) then you have to compare the expected offensive value of the running back receiving a handoff or catching a pass and hold that up against the expected value of an elite level passing offense throwing the ball. You obviously never want to take away plays from Mahomes or Allen so a guy like Bijan can get some touches.
I know you're sick of the running back conversation but I have not heard a good case for not spending the minimum amount of money possible on RBs lol. Also don't see the benefit of ever drafting one unless drafting one in the 7th round is cheaper than a UDFA.
Great article, very interested in more of this aggregation of information to help put the pieces together. Outside the top few picks, this probably lends itself well to a tier rating system since similar grades/positions are going to cluster.
I think the best but also maybe most difficult addition would be the range of outcomes. I'm not aware of any scouting system that does this player by player, but maybe it could be estimated on a positional or other basis. I think a probability based range of outcomes should be discussed/used much more with all player evaluations. What are your thoughts on this?
One other interesting piece that I remember reading is not only value of position by contract, but availability of those positions in draft vs free agency. But that's probably more of a larger team building philosophy.
Football Outsiders does range of outcomes in their projections. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/qbase-2020
Hadn’t seen that before. Thanks!
My only issue with this rubric (and basically anyone that rates RBs) is that any type of grading system or WAR metric that compares one player at a position vs other players at the same position runs into an issue with RB value. You can do player value positional comparisons effectively with almost every position but RB. Since the team has to either run or pass the ball every play (and as you know passing is much more efficient than rushing) then you have to compare the expected offensive value of the running back receiving a handoff or catching a pass and hold that up against the expected value of an elite level passing offense throwing the ball. You obviously never want to take away plays from Mahomes or Allen so a guy like Bijan can get some touches.
I know you're sick of the running back conversation but I have not heard a good case for not spending the minimum amount of money possible on RBs lol. Also don't see the benefit of ever drafting one unless drafting one in the 7th round is cheaper than a UDFA.